Während die ersten Lockdowns im Frühjahr 2020 ihre Schockwellen in Form vollständig gegroundeter Flotten durch die Luftfahrtbranche sendeten, begannen Berater und Strategen sogleich, sich über Zeitpunkt und Umfang einer Erholung des Verkehrs Gedanken zu machen. Die diskutierten Szenarien reichten von einer schnellen Erholung der Nachfragekurve, einem V, über ein langes Tal in Form eines U bis hin zum langfristigen Niedergang, symbolisiert durch ein L.
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