Der Erste Bürgermeister der Freien und Hansestadt Hamburg, Peter Tschentscher (SPD), wird aller Voraussicht nach auch nach der Bürgerschaftswahl am Sonntag, den 2. März, wieder den Senat führen. Aktuelle Umfragen sehen seine Partei zwischen 31 und 34 Prozent. Für die SPD würde das zwar Verluste bedeuten (2020 erhielt sie 39 Prozent), aber sie wird sehr wahrscheinlich klar stärkste Kraft bleiben. Um Platz 2 kämpft Tschentschers Koalitionspartner von den Grünen, die wahrscheinlich ebenfalls Verluste hinnehmen müssten und aktuell bei 19 bis 20 Prozent liegen, mit der CDU, die nach ihrem Wahldebakel von zuletzt elf Prozent nun zwischen 16 und 18 Prozent erreichen könnte.
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